Chapter 362: Chapter 49, Strategic Gamble
After returning to the European Continent, Stephen and Garibaldi went their separate ways. One set off to stir up independence, while the other sought a place to observe the situation.

Stephen and his companions didn’t return to Hungary immediately. Their experience in exile taught them that they must be careful and cautious, as any negligence could be fatal.

Although over a decade had passed and everything had changed dramatically, no one could guarantee they wouldn’t be recognized by an acquaintance.

If word got out, they would be done for. In Montenegro Duchy, Stephen and the others disembarked and posed as merchants to survey the market.

They then sent out a few young people who had never passed through Austria to enter the Hungarian Region and gather intelligence.

Adversity is most conducive to growth, and the Hungarian Independence Organization was no longer what it was over a decade ago. Not only had they learned to know both their enemies and themselves, but their ability to preserve their lives had increased by several notches.

…

As a wave of Rebels swept towards the European Continent, the Prussia-Denmark war was also nearing its end. Thankfully, the Tsarist Government intervened in time.

This couldn’t really be called timely, as the Tsarist Government should have acted more than two months earlier. Unfortunately, the Russians wanted to suppress the Polish rebels first before dealing with the Prussians.

As a result, the Polish rebels were defeated, but the insurrection continued. This time the insurrection had too many backers behind the scenes, and the rebels’ strength exceeded Russian expectations.

Defeating them was easy, but eradicating them proved difficult. The existence of the Polish insurrection bought time for the Prussians.

Only when the Danish people could no longer hold on did the Tsarist Government have no choice but to intervene. Otherwise, if the Kingdom of Denmark fell, the Russian Empire would lose all its dignity.

On December 28, 1864, the Tsarist Government issued an ultimatum to the Kingdom of Prussia, demanding they withdraw from Denmark within 24 hours.

Berlin, despite being mentally prepared, still felt pressured when the day actually arrived. This time their enemy was the hegemon of Europe—the Russian Empire, not at all comparable to the Danish people.

At this stage, there was no room for the Prussian Government to back down. Otherwise, not only would they offend the Russians, but they would also alienate the secretly supportive England and France.

Wilhelm I could no longer afford to be at odds with the military. If they lost the war, even if the Russians didn’t swallow Prussia whole, they would at least take a harsh bite out of them.

“Are we ready? Do we have confidence in defeating the Russians?”

The Minister of the Navy and Army, Roon, answered, “We have completed the national mobilization, all reservists have been called up, and 427,000 Prussian troops are ready to be deployed at any time.

The most important thing now is to secure more loans from England and France. As long as we resolve the funding issue, we can afford to play the long game with the Russians.”

The Kingdom of Prussia might have mobilized 427,000 troops, but that didn’t mean all these forces could be committed to the war against Russia.

Having too powerful a neighbor is a tragedy in itself. Any one of its three neighbors had the power to crush them, so the Prussian Government had to be extremely cautious.

Deploying the main force and engaging the Russians in a decisive battle is not a problem, but how to ensure that we are not taken advantage of by France and Austria during our moment of weakness is a significant issue.

Even if everyone needs them to strike at the Russians, France and Austria will temporarily refrain from acting against us. But what about once the war is over?

Whether it’s a defeat or a victory, it could potentially invite strikes from France and Austria.

In case of defeat, there’s no need to elaborate that the Russians will carve out their share of flesh, France and Austria will also follow suit in carving flesh from the Kingdom of Prussia, which won’t be able to extricate itself without paying a heavy price.

Even winning this war doesn’t equate to victory, as the Tsarist Government still has the power to make a comeback. There are long days ahead!

The European Continent is too small to accommodate so many great powers; neither France nor Austria wants to see a powerful Prussia emerge.

Once the Russians have been dealt with, the role of the Kingdom of Prussia will have been played out, and it would be all too normal to be backstabbed.

Preventive measures are a must, and the Prussian Government has to prepare in advance. In case of any unforeseen situations, there must be time to react.

With so many practical issues at hand, it’s natural for the Prussian Military to avoid risks. They not only need to win the victory but also have to minimize losses as much as possible in order to deal with possible opportunistic strikes by France and Austria after the war.

In this era, the international environment of the Kingdom of Prussia is much worse than it historically was, leaving them with very little room for choice.

Historically, Bismarck was able to lead Prussia to unify Germany because it was built on the premise that Russia lost the Crimean War and Austria lost the war against France and Austria.

The current situation is completely different. The war between France and Austria hasn’t even happened. The Kingdom of Sardinia tried to lure the French in by offering territory to attack Austria, but the Vienna Government directly took over the entire Kingdom of Sardinia instead.

The France that has swallowed up the Kingdom of Sardinia seems to have profited greatly on the surface but has, in fact, fallen into a passive strategic state and is isolated by countries throughout Europe.

In some ways, this is good for the Kingdom of Prussia. The French, caught in a diplomatic quagmire, dare not covet the Rhineland for the time being, greatly reducing their national defense pressures.

The situation with the haughty Russians is different; despite the fact that they suffered greater losses in the Near East War than in the historical Crimean War, the problem is that they won!

The Russian people are not afraid of heavy losses; the Tsarist Government occupied Istanbul, and all sectors of society are very satisfied, with the losses being directly overlooked.

The Tsarist army, tested by war, also isn’t what it used to be historically; not only has their weaponry surpassed their historical counterparts, but their morale and spirit are incomparable.

It’s no surprise then that the Prussian Military opts for a conservative strategy. After all, the one thing the Tsarist Government has in abundance is soldiers, and with the Russian-Austrian Alliance in place, even if Austria doesn’t support the Russians, it doesn’t prevent them from selling arms.

Under such circumstances, it is clearly unwise to engage in a power struggle with the Russians. The Tsarist Government can afford to lose three or five times, but the Prussians can’t afford to lose even once.

War is no child’s play, whether it’s Roon or Maoqi, they are the finest military strategists of the era. Their scope naturally extends beyond winning a single battle; their goal is to win the war.

The greatest weakness of the Tsarist Government is its poverty; Prussia has financial backers, and if this becomes a war of attrition, the Russians will definitely be the first to collapse.

Prime Minister Frank raised a question, “How can we ensure that we hold off the Russians? Based on the actual situation, we must repel the enemy before they reach our gates.

You are all well aware of what the Cossack cavalry is capable of; if we let them penetrate deep into our territory to wreak havoc, the consequences would be unimaginable.”

This is indeed the most vexing issue—the Prusso-Russian Border is far too long, and with the Po Valley being a vast plain, these areas are the bedrock of the Junker aristocracy and cannot be compromised.

We cannot afford even a raid by a few hundred cavalrymen, let alone a major incursion by the Russian Army, without the Berlin Government suffering heavy losses.

Maoqi said with a grave expression, “We must implement a scorched earth policy, relocating all civilians within fifty kilometers of the Prusso-Russian Border to the rear.

Conduct a second mobilization, extending the service term of soldiers to five years and adjusting the conscription age to 16–55 years. We can then raise an additional three hundred thousand troops, briefly train them to counter any sudden Russian incursions.”

The faces around him changed dramatically. In theory, consolidation and clearing fields might sound straightforward, but the execution would most certainly come at a terrible cost.

The Kingdom of Prussia is not large; it might seem easy to retreat fifty kilometers, yet in practice, this means relocating millions of people and abandoning one-fifth of our territory as no man’s land.

Wilhelm I stated sternly, “This is impossible, your scorched earth plan has exceeded our capacity. If we proceed this way, it will be us, not the Russians, who collapse first.”

Maoqi sighed and said, “If that’s the case, we have no choice but to take a risk and strike, keeping the battlefield within Polish territory as much as possible.”

In this era, trenches and barbed wire had not yet appeared. Without these cheap defensive installations and considering the length of the Prusso-Russian border, we can only construct fortifications in critical areas.

The enemy’s main forces would not dare to bypass these fortifications for a deep attack, but it’s different for small units.

Of course, there are defensive structures in the rear as well—the nobles’ castles are the best fortifications, more than sufficient against small units that lack heavy firepower.

The main reason for scorched earth is to minimize personnel losses. After all, it’s impossible for civilians to stay indefinitely within castles; life must go on.

Cavalry can strike as swiftly as the wind. Even with warnings, preparation takes time. A fifty-kilometer withdrawal aims to secure this crucial time.

Wilhelm I began to hesitate. The greatest risk of a bold strike was not military. The Polish Independence Organization is an ally of Prussia, and even if war breaks out on Polish soil, they still have the support of their people.

The trouble arises from infuriating the Russians, turning a local conflict into full-scale war between the two nations. It is not that Prussians are timid, but rather, having completed military reforms, they have yet to face a major war and thus lack confidence.

Prime Minister Frank spoke up, “Your Majesty, at this point, why hesitate?

If we win this war, a newly independent Kingdom of Poland will be our buffer against Russia; if we lose, the Kingdom of Prussia will forfeit its future.”

As the Prime Minister coming from the Junker nobility, in a critical moment, he still sided with the Junker interests. After all, class interests must be preserved.

The retreat path for the Kingdom of Prussia might be blocked, but the Junker nobles still have their escape routes. In this era, these able nobles are in high demand and have no worries about prospects.

Wilhelm I nodded firmly and said, “Go ahead with full confidence!”

At this juncture, he decided to gamble big. By shifting the battlefield to Russian Poland, not only could domestic losses be reduced, but there would also be an opportunity to carve a piece from the Russians after the war.

The British support their expansion in the Baltic region. With no opportunities for expansion in the Germany Region, moving eastward became the only choice.

The nations of Europe have no objections to the emergence of a Prussian Empire that grapples with the Russian Empire. John Bull would not stand by and watch Prussia perish.

Prime Minister Frank proposed, “Your Majesty, we must seek more supporters. At the very least, we need to ensure that the Austrians remain neutral.

An imperial Russia supported by Austria is completely different from one without Austrian support. We cannot afford to be enemies with both empires at the same time.”

Since this is a war of attrition, we naturally have to consider the comparison of strength on both sides. Austria may not be as wealthy as England and France, but its industrial strength is not inferior to France’s.

Support does not necessarily have to be in the form of money; material supplies can also be effective. As long as there is enough food, weapons and ammunition, and necessary military supplies, the Russians can continue to hold out.

In that era, most conscripts in Europe did not receive military pay, and the military wages of nobility officers could be accrued; they would not strike just because the king could not pay their wages.

Wilhelm I thought for a moment and said, “Hmm, send someone to talk with the Vienna Government. As long as it’s not a core issue, we can negotiate.”

…

Vienna, Franz was still unaware that Austria had once more become the focal point of contention for all parties involved; both Prussia and Russia needed Austria’s support.

Geopolitics is an ever-present topic that cannot be avoided. Austria, being so close at hand, can play a role that England and France, far away, cannot match.

He was still worried about the letter in his hand. Maximilian, having fallen into a difficult situation, had finally realized the need to seek help, and then Franz was in a dilemma.

With the Prusso-Russian war about to break out, the Vienna Government must be alert and attentive; with the American Civil War nearing its end, Austria must commit its strength in the American region to subsequent intervention actions.

Meddling further in Mexican internal affairs would literally be asking for trouble.

To directly refuse would seem too insensitive, after all, the naive Maximilian thought diplomatic support would suffice, little knowing that behind every diplomatic backing was a play of power.

Diplomacy without the support of power is not even worth mentioning. After much hesitation, Franz decided to instill some motivational encouragement into Maximilian, urging him to strive on his own.

As a good elder brother, Franz still offered some substantial advice.

He deeply analyzed the internal conflicts within the Mexican Empire and advised Maximilian to first win over the Constitutionalists to establish a stable government. The issue of reforms could be discussed later.

Lack of money is even simpler; boldly ask for loans from the French. Concessions, right of ways, fiscal revenues, mineral resources… all could be mortgaged as long as the price was right.

Whether to heed the advice was beyond Franz’s control. Now that the suggestion had been given, if acted upon, it might not make the Mexican Empire strong, but it could at least ensure the stability of Maximilian’s throne.

The added difficulty for future reforms was outright ignored by Franz. In the face of survival, all other factors could be cast aside.

‘Owing money makes you the boss’ may not quite fit the times, but it at least ensured that Napoleon III wouldn’t easily give up his support.

The problem of debt repayment would have to wait until Maximilian was firmly seated on his throne. If he were to be ousted halfway through, these debts would be irrelevant to Maximilian.

The borrower is the Mexican Government, not Maximilian personally. In case of being toppled by the enemy, leaving behind a mess would also serve as a small act of revenge.